Ishishini lebhetri ye-lithium lisiba ngcono.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2026, ishishini le-lithium yebhetri engalunganga ye-electrode yasekhaya inikezele ukusebenza okungaphezulu kakhulu kobekulindelwe kwimarike.
Idatha yamva nje yoshishino ibonisa ukuba iyonke imveliso yegraphite negative electrode e-China ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi inyuke ngaphezulu kwe-52% yonyaka{1}}ngo{2}}ngonyaka, kwaye umthamo wenqanawa uwonke unyuke ngama-64%{4}}ngonyaka{5}. Umthamo wonyaka wokuthunyelwa kwempahla kulindeleke ukuba udlule kwi-3 yezigidi zeetoni.
Izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwemveliso{0}}ephezulu ekhawulezayo yokutshaja i-electrode ene-4C nangaphezulu igqithe kakhulu kumndilili woshishino. Ishedyuli yoku-odola yeenkampani zebhetri ezisezantsi ziye zanda ukuya kuthi ga kwikota yesithathu, kwaye ezinye iindidi ezingundoqo ziye zafumana imeko yokubonelela "yokulinda ukuhanjiswa".
Izinga lokungena kwesilicon{0}esekelwe kwi-electrode engalunganga iyakunyuka ukusuka kwi-10% ukuya kwi-25%, kwaye{3}}imveliso yokutshaja ngokukhawuleza ephezulu iyanqongophala, kwaye ii-odolo zeshishini zigcwele ngokubanzi.
Ingoma egxekayo, ekhe yaphawulwa njenge' overcapacity ', ngoku iphantsi kophuculo oluphezulu-, ilungisa ngokutsha ngokupheleleyo ubonelelo{1}}ipateni yemfuno.
Ukuqhuma kwemfuno: Ukutshaja ngokukhawuleza kuba yinjini yokukhula kweshishini
Ukunyuka kwemfuneko-yesiphelo esikhawulezayo sokutshaja iielectrode ezingalunganga kulomjikelo asiyonto yengozi{1}}yexesha elifutshane lentengiso, kodwa sisiphumo esingenakuthintelwa semfuno esezantsi yomsindo kwimimandla emininzi.
Kwelinye icala, umkhwa wokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwintengiso yezithuthi zamandla amatsha awunakuguqulwa. Phakathi kweemodeli eziphambili ezisanda kusungulwa ngo-2026, umlinganiselo weemodeli ezixhasa i-800V ephezulu{3}}iqonga le-voltage lidlule kwi-60%, kunye nesantya esihambelanayo sokungena kwe-4C nangaphezulu kweebhetri zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza ziye zanda ngokukhawuleza, ziqhuba ngokuthe ngqo imfuno ye-electrode ephezulu yokutshaja ngokukhawuleza ukuba iqhume.
Kwelinye icala, imfuno yolwakhiwo lwemalike yokugcina amandla iphinda ikhutshwe ngokuqhubekayo. Umjikelo omde, iibhetri eziphezulu zokugcina amandla zineemfuno eziphezulu zoxinano lokuxinana kunye nokusebenza kwezinga lezinto ezingalunganga ze-electrode. Iimveliso eziqhelekileyo eziqhelekileyo zegraphite azikwazi ukuhlangabezana nemigangatho yobugcisa yesizukulwana esitsha sokugcina amandla ebhetri.
Ngokwembono yolwakhiwo lolandelelwano olusezantsi, unyaka-ngonyaka{1}}izinga lokukhula lokutshaja okukhawulezileyo okungalunganga kwe-electrode yokuthengwa kwee-electrode ezikhokelayo kwiinkampani ezikhokelayo zebhetri elingaphezulu kwe-80%, kwaye ezinye iifektri eziphambili zebhetri ziye zaphakamisa iithagethi zazo zokuthenga ukutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwee-electrode ezingalunganga kabini ngo-2026.
Idatha yophando kushishino ibonisa ukuba izabelo zentengiso zasekhaya ezitshaja ngokukhawuleza ii-electrode ezingalunganga ziya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-32% ngo-2025 ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-50% ngo-2026, kwaye ubungakanani bemakethi ephezulu{4}}yemveliso ekhawulezayo yokutshaja iya kudlula i-30 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan unyaka wonke, ibe yeyona njini iqhuba ukukhula kweshishini le-electrode engalunganga.
Ngokwahlukileyo koko, izinga lokukhula kwemfuno kwisiphelo esisezantsi{0}}sesiphelo seemveliso ze-electrode ezingalunganga zishiyeke kuphela malunga ne-20%, kwaye ezinye ezingahambelaniyo nexabiso eliphantsi-ezongeziweyo umthamo wemveliso uye wafumana amazinga okusebenza angonelanga, eqhubela phambili ukwahluka kobume bemfuno yoshishino.
Icala lobonelelo: Ukukhutshwa komthamo ophezulu{0}ophezulu wemveliso kusilela kakhulu kunobekulindelekile
Ngelixa imfuno isanda ngokukhawuleza, icala lonikezelo-lokugqibela olukhawulezayo lokutshaja ii-electrode ezingalunganga zijongene nemiqobo emininzi eqinileyo, ekhokelela ngokuthe ngqo kwimeko yangoku yemarike yokunqongophala kobonelelo.
Ngokungafaniyo neemveliso ze-electrode ezingalunganga, isiphelo esiphezulu se-electrode -esikhawulezayo sokutshaja okungalunganga sinemibango ephezulu kakhulu yokukhetha imathiriyeli ekrwada, ulawulo lwenkqubo, kunye ne-post{1}}iteknoloji yonyango: ayenzi kuphela{2}}ucoceko olusezantsi lwenaliti yesulfure ephantsi kufuneka isetyenziswe njengemathiriyeli ekrwada, kodwa ukuguqulwa komphezulu okhethekileyo kunye neenkqubo zolawulo lwepore nazo ziyafuneka ukuze kuphunyezwe iimfuno zokuqhuba ngokukhawuleza. Kuthatha ubuncinane iinyanga ezili-18 ukusuka ekwakhiweni komthamo omtsha wemveliso ukuya kwimveliso yobuninzi obuzinzile, kwaye akusiyo ukwanda okukhawulezayo kwixesha elifutshane.
Ngexesha elifanayo, inkqubo ephambili yokuveliswa kwe-electrode engalunganga, i-graphitization, isathintelwa ngokungqongqo zizikhombisi zokusetyenziswa kwamandla kunye nokunikezelwa kwamandla.
Ngaphantsi kwe-30% yomthamo we-graphitization osanda kufakwa e-China ngo-2026 unokuvelisa ngokuzinzileyo iimveliso zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza, kwaye umthamo omkhulu osanda kukhululwa unokuvelisa kuphela amandla aqhelekileyo okanye ukugcinwa kwamandla e-electrode engalunganga, engakwaziyo ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zokusebenza eziphezulu{2}}iimveliso zokuphela.
Oku kukhokelele ekuchasaneni kolwakhiwo apho umthamo wemveliso uwonke weshishini ubonakala wanele, kodwa amandla okuvelisa aphezulu{0}ophezulu anqabile.
Ngokwezibalo zemibutho yoshishino, umthamo wangoku osebenzayo wemveliso we-4C nangaphezulu kokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwee-electrode ezingalunganga ezithobela imimiselo e-China zingaphantsi kweetoni ezingama-800000, ngaphantsi kakhulu kwemfuno yemarike yeetoni ezingaphezulu kwesigidi esi-1 unyaka wonke. Unikezelo{4}isithuba semfuno sidlula iitoni ezingama-200000, ekwasesona sizathu singundoqo sokuzaliswa kwee-odolo ngoku phakathi kwamashishini aphezulu.
Amashishini aphambili akhulisa umsantsa wokhuphiswano
Ukuguqulwa konikezelo kunye neepateni zemfuno kuye kwaqhuba ngokuthe ngqo ukubuyiswa kwenzuzo kwishishini le-electrode elibi.
Ukusukela kwikota yesibini ka-2026, ixabiso lemarike-lokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwee-electrode ezingalunganga zonyuke nge-15% -}20% xa kuthelekiswa nokuqala konyaka, kwaye ezinye iimveliso ezilungiselelweyo zonyuke kakhulu zide zonyuka ngaphezulu kwe-30%. Nangona kunjalo, iindleko zemveliso yamashishini aphezulu ahlangeneyo azinyukanga kakhulu, kwaye umda wengeniso yeemveliso ubuyele kwakhona ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-15% ngexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo ukuya kwi-25%. Umyinge wengeniso yeemveliso ezibizwa ngokukhawuleza zamashishini athile aphambili ude wadlula kuma-30%, ukubuyisela umva ngokupheleleyo imeko yangaphambili yokhuphiswano lwamaxabiso aphantsi kushishino.
Ngexesha lale nkqubo, inzuzo yokukhuphisana yamashishini aphezulu yandiswa ngakumbi.
Ngokwembono yangoku, ukunqongophala konikezelo lwee-electrode ezingalunganga zokutshaja-ekugqibeleni okukhawulezayo kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke ubuncinane kude kube kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2027. Ishishini liye lavalelisa ngokupheleleyo kukhuphiswano olulula oludlulileyo oludlulileyo kwaye luguqukele kukhuphiswano olubanzi lwezakhono kubuchwepheshe, inkqubo, kunye nekhonkco lokubonelela.
Amashishini anokuqhubeka nokuphehlelela ireyithi ephezulu, umjikelo omde,{0}}imveliso ebiza ngokukhawuleza ephantsi{0}ixabiso eliphantsi kwixesha elizayo aza kuqhubeka ethatha isabelo semarike kwaye bonwabele ukukhula kokusebenza okuziswe-izabelo eziphezulu zokugqibela kulo mjikelo wophuculo loshishino.
